The energy transition and the entire technological revolution associated with it are the main drivers of the strong demand for critical minerals, which today rival the role of oil in global geopolitics. The essential nature of these minerals is evident in the context of international disputes, as the search for new territories aims to secure the supply of critical minerals, while the need to strengthen national defense industries also increases demand for them. In this setting of geopolitical fragmentation and the shakeup of global powers, Brazil, which possesses a wide diversity of natural resources and a historically recognized diplomatic neutrality, positions itself as an important player and a secure source of critical minerals. At the international level, the Brazilian government has positioned itself strategically within the global critical minerals agenda, reinforcing Brazil’s role not merely as an exporter of mineral commodities, but as a central element in the energy transition and in the integration of more sustainable production chains, while advocating that the new economy needs to reduce inequalities of companies in production-stage projects involving tin, nickel, copper, and bauxite, among others. The European Union, meanwhile, is engaged in multilateral initiatives and investments.
Great potential
Brazil possesses enormous geological potential, internationally recognized for its diversity, significant mineral provinces, and large reserves, with particular emphasis on lithium, nickel, rare earth elements, graphite, copper, niobium, and bauxite. In addition to its mineral resources and reserves, Brazil also has a clean energy matrix and water availability, further reinforcing its natural potential.
In addition to a number of projects that have already entered the production stage — particularly in niobium, graphite, bauxite, nickel, copper, and lithium —30 million hectares (over 100,000 square miles) are presently under exploration for critical minerals, such as rare earth elements, lithium, graphite, and others.
Ongoing mineral exploration is focused on new genetic models and types of mineralization, as well as on the reevaluation of previously exploited areas, tailings dams, and waste and tailings piles, which are being reanalyzed for fuller knowledge and identification of the true geological potential.
Thus, not only due to the natural characteristics of its territory, Brazil proves to be highly attractive for investments in mineral exploration and production, but also due to its legal certainty, technical expertise, infrastructure, and strong consumer market for manufactured goods, in addition to its neutral diplomacy.
These factors position the country as a destination for international investment, with particular emphasis on capital originating from Canada, Australia, and China.
Over the next five years, the Brazilian Mining Institute (Ibram) projects an investment inflow amounting to approximately US$ 76.9 billion, with nearly 28 percent of this amount allocated to critical minerals. This corresponds to an estimated inflow of around US$ 21 billion by 2030 specifically for critical mineral projects.
Brazil's strategic outlook is clear. In terms of demand for manufactured products, there is a significant increase in data centers and in the number of electric and hybrid vehicles. The outlook for the implementation of mining projects shows that, over the next five years, the start of operations is expected for rare earth, nickel, graphite, copper, and lithium projects, which will consolidate Brazil's positioning, particularly in the global rare earth and lithium value chains.
Critical mineral projects have singular characteristics: they are mostly small- to medium-scale, closely linked to downstream stages of the value chain, require product adaptation to industrial demand, and involve intensive use of technology, effectively constituting technology industries, unlike traditional mining companies.
With respect to rare earth elements, the country will account for up to 25 percent of global output, with ionic clay projects spread across the states of Goiás, Minas Gerais, and Bahia. In the case of nickel, sulfide nickel projects are scheduled to be brought on stream in Pará and Bahia. In lithium, significant projects will be developed in Minas Gerais, in the Lithium Valley. In copper, the commencement of operation of projects in Pará and the expansion of projects in Bahia will reinforce Brazil's status as a producing country. In graphite, important ore deposits with characteristics suitable for battery use are being studied at pilot scale and, in the coming years, will further expand Brazil's prominence in the world market.
Thus, the Brazilian challenge will be to anticipate the impact of these projects once they become operational, and to expand the densification of the mineral value chain, particularly in the midstream segment.
Brazilian policy
Brazilian policy on critical minerals has been structured in recent years to respond to the importance of these inputs in the new economy. In this context, the National Mineral Policy Council (CNPM) — a federal body coordinated by the Mining and Energy Ministry, whose members are drawn from a number of government agencies and include representatives of the general public — was established in 2025 and started work on the development of guidelines by a technical committee dedicated specifically to critical minerals, with the objective of modernizing industrial governance and promoting coordinated public policies.
Still within the scope of government initiatives, the National Development Bank (BNDES) structured a fund holding more than US$ 200 million, earmarked for investments in critical mineral projects, from planned greenfield developments to operations already in production. The Science, Technology, and Innovation Ministry (MCTI), in its turn, made resources available through the Funding Authority for Studies and Projects (FINEP) focused on technological development and the structuring of critical mineral value chains. In addition, the Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency (ApexBrasil) has promoted roadshows and initiatives to present Brazilian projects to international investors, with a focus on attracting capital and integrating the country into global value chains.
At the congressional level, Bill No. 2780/2024, currently under consideration in the Chamber of Deputies, proposes to introduce a National Policy on Critical and Strategic Minerals (PNMCE) with the purpose of creating guarantee mechanisms for financing and tax incentives for value chain development and value addition. In parallel, Bill No. 4443/2025, now being discussed by the Senate, also seeks to consolidate a national framework on critical minerals, among other matters, including the creation of areas dedicated to mineral processing, with the aim of reducing the export of raw materials without added value.
These initiatives reflect efforts to transform Brazil's role from a mineral exporter into a competitive protagonist integrated into global value chains, aligning sectoral policies and fiscal and economic incentives within a context in which the market window is narrow.
Despite the implementation of these policies, Brazil is constantly strengthening its position as a reliable partner, combined with the defense of responsible mining and competitive integration into global markets. It is expected that the traceability of mineral value chains will highlight the inherent sustainability of minerals produced in Brazil, in the face of a market that is increasingly demanding and selective regarding origin and production standards.
Thus, Brazil's efforts to implement a critical minerals policy, the uniqueness of Brazilian deposits, and the global rearrangement of supply chains will dictate the pace of the projected investments.
