THE TIME HAS COME FOR BRAZIL TO TAKE CENTRE STAGE
"Brazil, so far removed from geopolitical polarization and conflicts with other nations, while holding enormous mineral potential, can see its time has come to take centre stage in the global mining industry," promises Raul Jungmann, the president of the Brazilian Mining Association (Ibram), speaking of the current race for strategic minerals for the energy transition.
Jungmann warns, however, that "the outdated view of mining that is still prevalent in Brazil" can be an obstacle to attracting investments. "States and municipalities create new taxes on mining, charging punitive rates," he says. "The tax reform, which was supposed to ease the burden, includes a selective tax on exports that will hit mining hard. In Congress, proposals are currently being discussed that threaten to increase the industry's costs. Brazil lacks a public policy that would encourage mineral production. In other words, Brazil is swimming against the tide, instead of fostering this highly strategic industry that, in 2024, thanks to its export performance, provided 47 percent of the overall trade surplus.
Despite these obstacles, Jungmann says the statistics for 2024 demonstrate, once again, the centrality of the mining industry to the Brazilian economy. "The industry accounted for almost half of the 2024 trade surplus. Several new ventures were completed and several new projects were announced. For the five-year period from 2025 to 2029, planned investments add up to US$ 68.4 billion." There has also been a significant boost in job creation. The number of people in direct employment in the mining industry grew from 185,000 in January 2021 to 221,000 at the end of 2024.
Jungmann also highlights technological advances, citing as an example the advance in the process of dismantling upstream dams, while the emergency level at all remaining tailings dams was lowered in 2024. "The industry is also advancing in increasingly sustainable practices and in its relationship with society," he says. "A major step forward in this connection was the signing of the Mariana Agreement, ending a long period of uncertainty and legal insecurity, both for the people affected and for companies." The Mariana agreement was signed between Vale, BHP, Samarco, the federal government, the state governments of Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo, federal and state boards of attorneys, and other juridical bodies, awarding compensation in the amount of R$ 170 billion for the damage caused by the collapse of a Samarco tailings dam in 2015.
Another highly positive fact, Jungmann says, is "the growing perception of the importance of critical minerals for the modern and technological world and mainly for achieving global goals towards the energy transition and decarbonization." This awareness acts in Brazil's favour, he says, since the United States, the European Union, Saudi Arabia, and China, among others, have already proclaimed their intention to seek alternative suppliers of these minerals.
The outlook for 2025 and 2026, he says, is for output and exports alike to remain stable at their current levels, given that the world economic outlook is for lower inflation, with banks and other financial institutions moving in the direction of easier terms and lower interest rates. There has also been the impact of the Chinese government's actions aimed at finding a way to improve their
Economic growth rate. Worldwide geopolitical pressures have pushed up the prices of some mineral commodities, notably the gold price, which was the effect of investors seeking safer assets.
On the other hand, the taxation of mineral exports, which will be subject to the new Selective Tax, is "a negative factor," in Jungmann's words. "When Congress was debating the proposed tax reform," he recalls, "Ibram successfully lobbied for exports to be exempted. But then came the presidential veto, which meant that exports will be taxed, after all. That was one of the most negative factors affecting mining in 2024, and it is not going to change in 2025."
Jungmann also criticizes "the slowness and bureaucracy that persist in mining and environmental licensing; the lack of incentives for investments in the industry; and the insufficiency of financing mechanisms, which still fall far short of what is needed. And then there's the National Mining Agency, the ANM. The salary scale dispute has been settled, but the operating structure is still precarious."
Turning to the question of whether the Trump administration may have an impact on the future of Brazil's mining industry, Jungmann says that, while it is still too early to attempt an in-depth analysis, Brazilian minerals are mostly exported to Asian countries, which purchase around 80 percent of each year's output. "China alone imports 69.7 percent of our minerals, according to 2024 data," he notes. "Consequently, even if the U.S. government slaps a tariff on Brazilian products, it will not cause a major impact on the industry. Our response would be to further expand our ore exports to Asian countries. As for our imports of mineral products, the United States supplies 19.8 percent of our needs and, in any case, the total volume of our mineral imports is not very great. Brazil's total imports of minerals in 2024 stood at US$ 8.48 billion, 23 percent less than in the previous year. In comparison, Brazil exported US$ 43.4 billion in minerals in 2024, almost 1 percent more than in 2023. The U.S. market presents an opportunity to expand our exports of minerals, particularly the critical and strategic minerals such as lithium, niobium, and graphite, among others."
He adds that the U.S. government has already signaled that it wants to import minerals for use in defense and the development of new technologies and innovation. "Under the Joe Biden administration," Jungmann says, "they were mainly interested in minerals for the energy transition. Other countries and economic blocs also have their eye on Brazil's minerals. The European Union is a case in point. The current president, Ursula von der Leyen, has stated that the EU countries want to ensure their access to critical minerals from Latin America, including Brazil. Critical and strategic minerals are a passport to the future, and we are very well positioned in this market."